Cracking the Candy Code — MaxDiff Research Uncovers What Trick-or-Treaters Really Crave
- Megan Peitz
- Apr 10
- 5 min read
With Americans spending a staggering $3.5 billion on Halloween candy each year, which treats actually make trick-or-treaters happy?
Our sixth annual candy research survey shows exactly what people want in their Halloween haul, using MaxDiff analysis to measure preferences across different groups.
Exploring Halloween candy trends
According to CandyStore.com, M&Ms scored the number one slot in 2024, taking the crown from Reese's Cups based on total consumer spend. But sales data has its limits. Just because someone buys candy corn for their Halloween candy pot, doesn't mean the trick-or-treaters will be happy with that purchase. Candy corn in particular can be extremely polarizing!
Regional differences add another layer to the story. For instance, Michigan's top three purchased candies—Starburst, Candy Corn, and Butterfingers—differ from the overall top 3 on CandyStore.com's list—M&Ms, Reese's Cups, and Sour Patch Kids. These state-by-state variations show how local tastes can buck national trends.
But the bigger question isn't just what people buy, rather, what makes them happy when they reach into their Halloween bag. After all, buying decisions often come down to factors like price, package size, and what's on sale—not necessarily what trick-or-treaters want most. That's why we designed our study to focus on what people actually prefer to eat, not just what ends up in shopping carts.
How we do candy research
Traditional research methods fall short when dealing with lots of options. Think about trying to rank 60 different candies in order of preference—most people would give up partway through! And ranking data can't capture how much more someone loves their top candy compared to their second choice.
Rating scales also have their problems. When you ask people to rate how much they like different candies, they tend to be overly positive, marking almost everything as "love it." This makes it hard to understand what they truly prefer.
For our study, we take a different approach: MaxDiff analysis. Instead of overwhelming people with long lists or simple ratings, we show them just four candies at a time and ask them to make two choices: which one they like most and which one they like least. We then repeat this process, ~15 times, showing different combinations of candies on each screen. This allows us to capture preferences across all 60 candies while keeping the task manageable and engaging. As a result, we learn not just which candies people prefer, but how strongly they prefer them.
To get a well-rounded view of candy preferences, we gathered input from three distinct groups. Our main sample was a gen pop survey of n=300 adults from across the country, representing different ages, regions, and backgrounds. We also surveyed 61 teenage girls between ages 14 and 18, giving us insight into younger preferences. Finally, we invited our LinkedIn network, adding another perspective to our findings.
2024 Halloween candy research results
Our research revealed fascinating differences in candy preferences across different groups. Let's look at how they stack up.
Teens' favorites
Our research showed the teen group had an interesting mix of candy preferences. While Twix claimed their top spot, and other chocolate favorites ranked highly, their broader preferences set them apart from adult groups. Looking at their top 20 selections, we see a much stronger presence of non-chocolate candies—options that rarely made it into the adult top rankings:
This variety in teen preferences highlights why understanding different age groups matters so much for candy makers and Halloween planners. While adults tend to gravitate toward chocolate-based treats, teens show much more openness to fruity, sour, and gummy options.
Three types of candy lovers
Our analysis also revealed patterns in how different people approach their candy choices. By looking at these preferences through clustering algorithms, we identified three distinct groups of candy lovers. These consumer segments help explain why some Halloween candy bowls empty faster than others, and why having a mix of options matters.
The chocolate-only group (35% of people)
These chocolate purists know exactly what they want: chocolate, chocolate, and more chocolate. 24 out of the 60 candies received high scores for this group and every single one of those candies was chocolate-based. Fruity or sour candies? No thanks. This group sticks firmly to their chocolate preferences and shows little interest in branching out to other candy types.
The chocolate-plus group (40% of people)
This is the largest segment within our sample and those in this segment show a strong preference for chocolate, particularly Reese's Cups, Twix, and Kit Kat. But, they're not purists—they'll happily enjoy some non-chocolate options like Skittles.
The chewy group (26% of people)
The smallest but most diverse group in terms of preferences, these candy lovers gravitate toward non-chocolate options like Sour Patch Kids, gummy bears, and Skittles. While they don't avoid chocolate entirely—they clearly prefer fruity, sour, and gummy options. This group's preferences align closely with what we saw in our teen survey results.
Planning the perfect Halloween mix
With so many different candy preferences to consider, how can you build the perfect Halloween candy bowl? To optimize your candy selection, we used a technique called TURF analysis (Total Unduplicated Reach and Frequency) to figure out the ideal candy mix that would make the most trick-or-treaters happy. The findings: Reese's Peanut Butter Cups alone would satisfy 80% of visitors. Add Kit Kat to the mix, and satisfaction jumps to 90%. With a strategic combination of eight different candies, you could please nearly everyone who comes to your door.
But what if you only wanted to buy four candy options instead of 8? We can plug our data into a choice simulator and see how people would choose among those 4 alternatives. In a bowl of Reese's Cups, Milky Way, Kit Kat, and Sour Patch Kids, the model says trick-or-treaters:
42% of trick-or-treaters would pick Reese's Cups
23% would grab Milky Way
22% would take Kit Kat
13% would choose Sour Patch Kids
This suggests a practical buying strategy: stock twice as many Reese's Cups as Kit Kats or Milky Ways, and keep a smaller supply of Sour Patch Kids for those who prefer non-chocolate treats. With this mix, our research suggests that 9 out of 10 trick-or-treaters will find something they truly enjoy.
Beyond Halloween: What preference testing tells us
Understanding candy preferences might seem like Halloween fun and games, but it reveals something deeper about how people make choices. Our research shows that it's not just about chocolate versus non-chocolate, or sweet versus sour—it's about understanding the distinct patterns in how different groups approach their choices.
For Halloween planners, these insights offer a practical guide to building the perfect candy bowl. For candy makers, they provide valuable information about how preferences vary across age groups and how different types of candy lovers make their choices. Most importantly, this research demonstrates the power of MaxDiff analysis to uncover true preferences—going beyond simple ratings or sales data to understand not just what people like, but how strongly they like it.
While we used Halloween candy research as our example, this same approach can uncover insights for any situation where you need to understand how people make choices between multiple options. Whether you're developing new products, planning a product line, or trying to understand customer preferences, MaxDiff can help you move beyond basic rankings to truly understand what drives people's decisions.