Americans disagree about almost everything in politics - except how much they dislike the other party. Pew Research recently found that 62% of Republicans strongly dislike Democrats, while 54% of Democrats feel the same about Republicans.
As election season approaches, this divide creates a major challenge: How can campaigns figure out which issues truly matter to voters?
The problem lies in how we ask voters about policy priorities. I see polling companies repeatedly make the same mistake. They show people a list of policies and ask them to rate how important each one is. Democrats rate every Democratic policy as "extremely important, " and Republicans do the same for Republican policies.
The result? A mess of data that tells us nothing about what voters actually care about most.
This matters because campaign managers have limited time and resources. They can't focus on everything at once. In TV ads, rallies, and speeches, they need to know which messages will truly motivate people to vote for their candidate.
We created our own study to see if we could develop a better way to understand what voters really care about. Rather than following the traditional polling approach, we leveraged a research method called MaxDiff analysis that forces people to make trade-offs, much like they'll have to do in the voting booth. This method aims to cut through the partisan ratings and find out which issues truly drive voting decisions.
We put this method to the test with 500 American voters in October of 2024. The results not only revealed what different groups of voters care about most but also uncovered some surprising areas where Democrats and Republicans actually agree.
Even more importantly, we learned which issues matter most to independent voters - the group that could decide the next election.
A new way to understand voter priorities
Our team surveyed 500 U.S. voters using MaxDiff analysis, presenting 30 campaign promises across seven categories. The policies covered the economy and jobs (like reducing middle-class taxes and raising the minimum wage), healthcare (national programs and mental health funding), social issues (reproductive rights and racial equality), immigration, education, environment, and foreign relations.
Each participant completed 16 choice tasks. In each task, they saw four different campaign promises and selected which would make them most and least likely to vote for a candidate.
This approach forces trade-offs between options, revealing true priorities rather than allowing everything to be rated as important.
Where Democrats and Republicans agree
Three policies united voters across party lines. Reducing taxes for middle and lower-income households scored highest overall. Both parties also strongly supported increasing healthcare funding for low-income individuals and guaranteeing national healthcare and elder care programs. These shared priorities suggest areas where candidates could find common ground with voters.
Beyond these agreements, stark divisions emerged. Republican voters emphasized reducing illegal immigration and deporting undocumented immigrants who commit serious crimes. Democratic voters focused on ensuring women's reproductive rights and equal rights for all. Democrats also prioritized raising taxes on wealthy Americans and increasing the federal minimum wage.
What independent voters care about most
Independent voters, comprising 26% of respondents, showed unique priorities. While their top priority was reducing taxes for middle- and lower- income houesholds, they ranked reducing the federal deficit and improving infrastructure (roads and rails) as top concerns, scoring these issues ~20% higher than partisan voters did.
They placed less emphasis on gun restrictions and childhood vaccinations, scoring these 30% and 40% lower than the general population, respectively. Independent voters also ranked increasing funding to help the homeless and hungry higher than either Democrats or Republicans.
How priorities shifted since 2018
Comparing data from 2018 and 2024 revealed major shifts in voter priorities. Women's reproductive rights jumped from a rank of 16 out of 30 to 2 out of 30, becoming the second-highest priority overall.
Education funding dropped significantly, falling from #3 in 2018 to #14 in 2024. Environmental concerns also declined in priority. Developing alternative energy sources decreased from #6 to #18, while support for environmental regulations fell from #8 to #19 in 2024.
The science behind the method
Traditional surveys struggle with lengthy lists of items. When asked to rank 30 items, surveys typically focus only on their top choices. MaxDiff on the other hand, provides a full view of the entire stack rank.
The MaxDiff approach also reveals preference intensity. For example, the gap between reducing middle-class taxes (6.4) and the second-highest priority (4.9) shows how much more important tax relief is to voters. Similarly, reducing foreign trade scored just a 1.5, indicating very low priority compared to other issues.
Building bridges in a divided America
The study tested real campaign promises voters might hear in 2024. While polls show deep partisan division, our analysis found opportunities for agreement. Both parties gave high scores (above 6.0) to economic relief for middle- and low- income families. They also agreed on lower-priority issues, both scoring public transportation and reducing foreign trade below 2.0.
Beyond the top-scoring issues, we found moderate support (scores between 3.5 and 5.0) for increased funding for health care for low-income individuals (Medicaid), increased funding to help homeless/hungry, and increased funding for mental health research and treatment.
Better polling methods for better data
The deep divide in American politics might have less to do with actual policy disagreements and more to do with how we ask people about their priorities. Traditional polls reinforce division by letting everyone rate everything as extremely important. They encourage people to stick to party lines rather than reveal what truly matters to them.
Better research methods could help us understand voters as people rather than just party members. When forced to make real choices, voters show more nuanced thinking than simple party-line divisions suggest. Republicans and Democrats might disagree on many issues, but they share common ground on kitchen-table concerns like healthcare costs and middle-class tax relief.
More importantly, these methods reveal the complex views of independent voters who don't fit neatly into partisan boxes. Understanding these voters requires seeing them not as swing voters to be swayed, but as Americans with distinct priorities. This knowledge could help candidates build platforms that address real concerns rather than just partisan talking points.
The path to less divisive politics might start with better questions. Changing our approach to voter research could uncover more common ground than we expect. We might learn what truly matters to American voters beyond the party labels.
Want to learn more? Download the presentation and watch the Cracking the Voter Code: The Science of Policy Priorities replay!